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📋 Signal Scorecards

Transparent signal quality metrics. Every signal we publish has a scorecard showing accuracy, sample size, calibration details, and methodology version history. We show what works and what doesn't.

📈

Market Regime

68% 30d

Accuracy = % of time the predicted regime matches the realized 4h price direction. Buy → positive return, Sell → negativ...

v3.0 (2026-02) · 8,640 samples
🧭

Composite Signal

63% 30d

Composite score > +0.1 as buy signal, < -0.1 as sell signal. Measured against 1h forward returns....

v2.0 (2026-01) · 8,640 samples
📊

Orderbook Imbalance

62% 30d

Signal designed for 5m–1h horizons. Accuracy measured as hit rate when |imbalance| > 0.3 predicts next-bar direction....

v2.1 (2025-12) · 8,640 samples
💰

Funding Rate

59% 30d

Measured as contrarian hit rate: extreme funding (|z| > 2) predicting mean-reversion within 4h....

v1.3 (2026-01) · 8,640 samples

Volatility Analysis

70% 30d

Volatility regime classification accuracy: % of time high-vol label matches next-4h realized vol > 50th percentile....

v2.0 (2025-11) · 8,640 samples
💥

Liquidation Cascades

56% 30d

Hit rate for liquidation cascade detection: % of detected cascades (>$1M in 5min) that led to >0.5% reversal within 1h....

v1.2 (2025-12) · 2,160 samples
🐳

Whale Flow

58% 30d

Large order detection (>$500K) directional accuracy. Measured as % of whale orders where price moves in the same directi...

v1.1 (2025-11) · 720 samples
📐

Gamma Exposure (GEX)

60% 30d

GEX pin accuracy: % of time that price stayed within the predicted GEX pin range (±1 ATR of max gamma strike) for 4h....

v1.0 (2025-09) · 720 samples
🔗

Cross-Asset Correlation

65% 30d

Regime transition prediction: % of time that de-correlation events (coherence < 0.7) preceded regime changes within 4h....

v1.1 (2025-12) · 720 samples
🛡️

Signal Safety (Coherence)

80% 30d

Data integrity validation accuracy: % of time that low coherence scores correctly identified data quality issues....

v2.0 (2026-01) · 8,640 samples

Why Scorecards?

Most signal providers show you the signal but hide the track record. Scorecards are our answer: every signal gets measured against real market outcomes, with sample sizes large enough to be statistically meaningful.

Reading the numbers:

  • 65%+ — Strong signal (consistently profitable after costs)
  • 55–65% — Moderate signal (profitable with good risk management)
  • <55% — Weak/informational (use as confirmation, not primary signal)

All accuracy numbers are computed on out-of-sample data with no backfill bias. See Methodology for computation details.

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